Blue Arch Survey: Patch Democrats Say Clay Will Beat Carnahan

When a panel of influential Democrats were asked who would win Tuesday's primary election pitting U.S. Rep. William 'Lacy' Clay and U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan, a majority picked Clay to represent the party in the redrawn First Congressional District come November.

More than 50 influential Democrats were asked using an automated survey tool what they thought about a variety of questions tied to the Clay-Carnahan race among other topics.

Twenty-nine responses were collected with 58.6 percent favoring Clay, 34.5 percent backing Carnahan, and 6.9 percent percent having no opinion. No respondents chose Candice Britton, who is also running in the primary.

The survey also asked if the result of the Clay-Carnahan primary will have implications for Missouri Democrats in November. Thirty-one percent "Somewhat Agreed," while 24.1 percent "Somewhat Agreed". Twenty-four point one percent "Somewhat Disagreed" and 17.2 percent "Completely Disagreed," while 3.4 percent of respondents were neutral.

The survey gave participants the opportunity to explain why they felt the result of the race would have implications for the rest of the Democratic ticket. Two people who predict a Carnahan win said it could boost turnout. A respondent who chose Clay said the first district incumbent would carry the district while calling Carnahan "a maybe." Yet another panelist who chose Clay said they were concerned about party unity heading into November. 

"We can't afford to have people who's candidate didn't win a primary staying home on election day," the person wrote.

Do you agree with the panel's findings? Tell us in the comment section!

About Patch Blue Arch/Red Arch Surveys

Patch political surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population, but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential local Republican and Democratic activists, party leaders and elected officials in Missouri. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in the surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. Interviews for this poll were conducted between July 30 and August 3, 2012.

Patch will be conducting Red Arch and Blue Arch surveys throughout 2012 in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives, liberals and moderates on the ground in Missouri.

If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in a bi-weekly survey that lasts just a few minutes, please email Gregg.Palermo@patch.com.

Blue Arch Roster: Shelley Welsch (University City Mayor), Jake Zimmerman (St. Louis County Assessor), Bert Boxerman (Creve Coeur Township Committeeman), Tracy McCreery (State Representative), Jeanne Antoine (Olivette City Council), Missy Waldman (Olivette City Council), Richard Callow (PR Strategist), John Callahan (Committeeman for St. Charles County Township), Julie Biermann (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Charissa Mayes (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Jerry Daugherty (St. Charles County Councilman), Keith English (Florissant City Councilman/State Rep. candidate), Mary Elizabeth Dorsey (Florissant Township Committeewoman), Chuck Banks (Former Jefferson County Executive), Jo Ann Karll (DNC Convention delegate), Mary Broida (Fenton Committeewoman), Bob Usher (Voter), Tammy Vent (Rock Township Committeewoman), LaDonna Appelbaum (Convention Delegate), Timothy Green (State Senator), Gina Mitten (Richmond Heights Councilmember/State Rep. Candidate), Jill Schupp (State Representative), Jim Descher (Voter), Ken Curtis (West County Democrats Co-Chair), Steve Biggs (Meramec Township Committeeman), John Niemeyer (Meramec Township), Jim Frain  (Voter), Julie Dougherty (Voter), Linda Robson (Voter), Jim McHugh (Aide to former St. Louis County Executive), Molly McHugh (St. Louis County Planning Commission), Bob Burns (Affton School Board), Mark Powell (Former Arnold Mayor), John Messmer (Former DNC alternative delegate), Karl Frank, Jr. (Former Mehlville School Board Member/Activist), Donna Seidel (activist), Tom Diehl (Former School Board Member/Activist), Jim Barrett (Activist), Harvey Ferdman (Maryland Heights Township 2nd VP), Rod Jennings (University City School Board Member), Jane Dueker (Former Assistant AG/Chief of Staff To Governor Bob Holden), Gina Walsh (State Senate Candidate), Morton Todd (St. Charles County Democratic Committee Chairman), Mary "Kate" Laughlin (Voter), Rod Hoffman (State Rep. Candidate), Beverly Cowling (Voter), Bill Stinson (State Rep.), Russ Craven (blogger), Brynn Palmer (Voter), Theresa Borchert (Voter), Jim Karll (Voter), Jeff Wagener (Former St. Louis County Councilman), Pat Dolan (St. Louis County Council), Stacey Newman (State Representative), Cheryl Hibbeler (Former St. Charles County Council Representative), Deb Lavender (State Rep. Candidate), Kevin O'Malley (Fundraiser/Alternate Convention Delegate), Susan Meredith (State Rep. candidate), Susan Montee (Lt. Governor candidate), Bob Burns (State Rep. Candidate)