Plot thickens: Searching for key piece of political puzzle

Forget trying to compare politics in the St. Louis region to musical chairs. A more fitting analogy is comparing the political shuffle currently underway to completing a jigsaw puzzle in the dark and with a missing piece.

In a previous column, I outlined a , which I called “The Long Con.” It also happens to be the title of the 38th episode of the TV show Lost. I still find this to be the most intriguing theory.

The announcement on Tuesday by Rep. Todd Akin, a Republican, that he is officially entering the 2012 race for Senate to try and replace Sen. Claire McCaskill, a Democrat, is a key development in the political plot.

For those of you just joining, a lot was riding on the decision by Akin.

In anticipation of Akin’s decision, St. Louis attorney Ed Martin announced he would run for election in the second congressional district earlier this month, instead of running in the statewide race to unseat McCaskill.

Former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Ann Wagner also announced she formed an exploratory committee for the second district last month, saying she would run in the congressional district if a seat opens.

Soon after Akin’s announcement, Wagner announced she was running.

State Sen. Jane Cunningham, from Chesterfield, also confirmed to Missouri Watchdog on Thursday that she may enter the race. “It’s important to me that a conservative goes to Washington D.C.,” she said.

Here’s a quick summary of the conspiracy theory: Moderate Republicans want to convince Akin, who no one will question is a conservative’s conservative, to run against McCaskill. However, the moderates secretly hope McCaskill, who at least styles herself as someone to the right of her fellow Democrats, will win the race.

The moderates are hoping that Wagner will beat Martin and any other conservative challenger in the primary.

There are several developments that will still need to happen. Akin will need to oust former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who announced she was running for Senate in December, in the Republican primary.

Steelman will likely attack Akin for backing earmarks, which McCaskill has also vowed to vote against. Steelman has also held a statewide elected position, as opposed to Akin, and has strong backing in southwest Missouri.

Plus, there could be unintended consequences.

Rep. Russ Carnahan, a Democrat who lost his district because of redistricting, may enter the race in the second.

If Republicans spend a lot of money in the primary tearing each other to pieces, Carnahan may end up with a pile of untouched money, allowing him extra leverage to pick up enough votes to win in the general election.

I have been told this theory is wrong. First, moderates don’t win primaries. Second, Cunningham and Martin will be the top two contenders for the conservative district. Third, Wagner is a conservative, not a moderate.

I have been also told this theory is spot on by numerous Republican insiders outside of the St. Louis region.

(As a side note, especially in the current political environment, I don’t want to unjustly accuse anyone of being a liberal, moderate, or conservative. All three labels are often considered derogatory by opposing factions.)

Returning to “The Long Con” plot, there is yet one last missing piece: a political puppet master.

Who is moving the strings? Is it one person or a group?

Or could this be a case of a reporter trying to mash the puzzle pieces together when they clearly don’t fit?

If there is one politician or political operative who has mapped out this plan, I would like to meet you.

I’ll even buy you lunch. Please call (314) 482-7944 or email brhook@missouriwatchdog.org.

I don’t have to reveal who you are, unless you want to publicly come forward.

However, I must know more and I have so many questions.

By Brian R. Hook, brhook@missouriwatchdog.org, (314) 482-7944

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